And that same positive relationship is on display in these plots. In 2008, 27% of those without a high school diploma were weekly attenders. It was 36% of those with a graduate degree. The overall level of attendance is clearly dropping in each subsequent wave of the survey, but the upward trend of the lines holds steady. In 2012, it was 10 points. In 2016, it was 13 points. In both 2020 and 2022, it was 11 points. That’s pretty darn consistent.

OK, so let’s look at this in totality now. One thing I really try to stress with my graduate students when teaching research methods is how messy empirical results can be sometimes. It’s very rare to see 10 studies that test the relationship between A and B and find that in all 10 cases, more of A leads to more of B. That’s just not how social science works.

But if you find that in six of those tests the relationship is positive, in three it’s not statistically significant,and in one it’s negative, I think it’s fair to assume (with less than perfect certainty) that the relationship is generally a positive one. The next 10 studies may point things in a different direction, and you should always update your understanding in light of new evidence. But you have to roll with what you’ve got.

I just don’t know how you look at all this data that I’ve brought to bear and conclude that there’s not a positive relationship between education and religious attendance. You most certainly cannot conclude that it’s a negative relationship. That finds basically no support in this data at all. There’s some evidence that the relationship may not be statistically significant, but for me, the regression clears that up.

People who are more educated are more likely to be attending a religious service in the local house of worship this weekend than those with a high school diploma or less. That’s what the preponderance of evidence tells me.

This piece was originally published in Ryan Burge’s “Graphs About Religion” Substack.